Has Twitter Peaked? Not At All

According to Compete.com, Twitter’s growth in the U.S. last month was minimal (19.7 million unique visitors vs. 19.4 million in April) – a stark contrast to the hyper growth it had experienced earlier in the year.

The question is whether Twitter has plateaued after months of hype; whether it’s taking a breather as people settle in the summer, or whether growth is happening in other ways and other places.

There’s no doubt Twitter has probably more attention than it deserves, and that Twitter Fatigue may be settling in as people who rushed into the fray lose interest while others sit on the sidelines until they figure out how to use it.

Meanwhile, a small, but growing group, of Twitter users are actively using Twitter for all kinds of personal and business reasons. For Twitter’s growth, this group is important because if they continue to wave the Twitter flag, they will be a powerful sales/evangelist force to bring new users into the folder. It’s when you’re die-hard users walk away that you’re in trouble.

Another important consideration when looking at Twitter’s growth is Facebook went through the same kind of slow growth period in mid-2008. (See the Compete.com chart below) From July to September, Facebook’s month-over-month growth in the U.S. was less than 10%, including one period (August to September) when it added only 40,000 more unique visitors.

Before any starts drawing conclusions about Twitter’s growth, it’s important to take a deep breath and recognize that maybe flat month-over-month growth is simply an indication that there’s a pause in the action. Personally, I think Twitter will likely close 2009 with 25 million to 30 million unique visitors in the U.S.

For more thoughts, check out TechCrunch.

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